The imminent return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office in January 2025 has sparked discussions throughout the travel industry. Stakeholders across the industry and beyond are wondering whether his election could lead to a renewed ‘Trump slump’, a term used to describe a decline in international tourists, potentially due to his controversial policies. There was a decline in international arrivals following his first term inauguration, it remains to be seen whether this will occur again.
According to GlobalData, in 2016 international arrivals to the US fell, from 77.51 million travellers in 2015 to 76.62 million in 2016, a -1.15% YoY decline following steady growth in the years previous (CAGR 2009-2015: 4.43%). Travel did not surpass 2015 levels until 2018, well into Trump’s first term. While it could be argued that there may be other reasons for this decline, the effect of Trump and his policies is a contributing factor that cannot be overlooked. Trump’s re-election is likely to lead to a shift in policies impacting the US travel industry, affecting regulations, visa policies, and international relations.
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Impact of Trump’s policies on the travel industry
Marriott International has already alluded to a potential decline in business. In a statement prior to the election result, the hotelier’s CFO Kathleen Oberg said the election has negatively affected demand to a greater degree than previous elections. “The election impact on US and Canada RevPAR is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, double that of past election cycles.”
Travel professionals note that stricter immigration policies and heightened security measures, which were key components of Trump’s first term, could resurface. Such changes may increase the complexity of travel for some visitors and contribute to a perception of the US as less welcoming, potentially deterring international tourists. Additionally, Trump’s previous stance on environmental issues, such as reducing regulations aimed at sustainable travel practices, could impact the industry’s progress toward eco-friendly tourism, an area of growing importance to international travellers.
Resilience and adaptability of US tourism
Despite potential challenges, the US travel industry has a history of resilience, adapting to shifts in the political landscape and evolving to meet traveller demands. Industry experts emphasize that while a Trump presidency might pose hurdles, the tourism sector is adaptable and resourceful. Airlines, hotels, and other tourism businesses are likely to innovate, ensuring that visitors’ experiences remain positive and appealing. Many experts also believe that political climates fluctuate, and tourism to the US could remain stable in the long run due to the country’s diverse offerings and strong tourism infrastructure.
Only time will tell
Whether Trump’s re-election leads to a so-called ‘Trump slump’ in US tourism will largely depend on public perception and policy changes. While certain demographics may feel more hesitant to travel to the US, the industry’s proven adaptability may help mitigate some impacts. Still, ongoing adjustments in marketing and operations could be necessary to reassure international travellers and maintain the appeal of US destinations. For now, travel professionals across North America continue to monitor potential shifts, prepared to adapt strategies to ensure that US tourism thrives, regardless of the political landscape.
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By GlobalData
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