With Donald Trump set to become the president of the US again, concerns are being raised in some quarters about the potential for restrictive visa policies, the implications these policies will have on immigration, and the limitations these restrictions impose on the tourism industry. Based on the policies during his first term and proposals made during his campaign, immigrants to the US might encounter stricter scrutiny of their applications, restrictive visa regulations, and possibly deportations.
Tourist flows were impacted during Trump’s last presidency
One aspect of the first Trump presidency was the ‘travel ban’ imposed in 2017, which restricted entry for citizens of seven countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen) into the US. Iraq was later removed from this list. This however, contributed to a fall in international arrivals in the US. According to leading data and analytics company GlobalData, in 2017 international arrivals to the US from the Middle East region fell from 1.34 million in 2016 to 1.18 million in 2017, a -11.96% year-over-year decline. The prospect of something similar being reinstated creates uncertainty and the possibility of impacting inbound tourism figures in the US. Though this may have the possibility of reducing tourist flows from certain specific regions, the increased restrictive visa policies could also impact tourism numbers in terms of ‘visiting friends and relatives’ travel.
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The different stakeholders in the tourism industry are all wondering what this could mean for their future. With visa policy changes, increased immigration and security restrictions could all lead to reduced visitor flows from certain source markets. This could further impact the airline or hotel industries that are heavily reliant on tourist arrivals, especially from long-haul destinations in the Middle East or Asia-Pacific.
Impact of Trump’s visa policies on the travel & tourism industry
Trump’s proposed immigration policies could discourage international students from going to the US, choosing other countries instead. This could be because of the stricter visa rules and limitations placed on employment opportunities after graduation, making it more difficult to settle. The Trump administration has always favoured immigration control, leading to increased regulations for visas and green cards. During Trump’s first term, there were measures implemented that made it difficult for employees to get H-1B visas, which allows skilled foreign workers to stay in the country. These measures included rising rates of visa denials, increased visa application costs and uncertainty over the whole process. These all made it increasingly difficult for foreign students to be gainfully employed and stay in the country.
The increased regulation complexity and higher costs of the applications may also deter employers from hiring international students and foreign workers. This has the potential to impact the us economy by reducing the ability to attract and retain foreign talent. There is also the possibility of the tourism and hospitality industry in particular undergoing challenges in terms of being able to employ people, with changes being expected for H-2A and H-2B visas. The domestic hotel industry also relies on a lot of seasonal visas, which might be impacted by visa restrictions.
While Trump’s economic and infrastructural policies could help foster the US’ economy and the hospitality industry, there are increased worries about potential restrictive visa policies and their implication on immigration and the wider tourism industry. While all stays uncertain, the tourism industry should keep an eye out for any potential policy changes and be prepared to incorporate any shifts so as to make sure the impact is mitigated as much as possible.
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By GlobalData
