Signal: rebounding travel sees Hilton raise profit forecast

Hilton has raised its full-year profit forecast, after a successful third quarter sees a RevPAR increase of 6.8%.

Eve Thomas October 25 2023

Hilton Worldwide Holdings has raised its full-year profit forecast, having seen increases in occupancy rates and average daily rates (ADR) in the third quarter, as rebounding international travel drives custom.

Hilton now expects annual adjusted profit between $6.04 and $6.09 per share, an increase from its previous estimate of $5.93 to $6.06.

The Q3 earnings report notes a revenue-per-available-room (RevPAR) increase of 6.8% for the three months ending 30 September 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, citing increases in both occupancy and ADR as the likely factors driving the growth. Hilton reports that this is an 11.4% increase on the same period in 2019, before the pandemic caused significant disruption to the industry.

The report also notes that the third quarter saw a net income of $379m, with an adjusted EBITDA of $834m over the period. The full-year adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $3.025bn and $3.045bn.

Inflection point

Hilton’s growth has translated into its brand portfolio of open hotels, with the openings of the first Spark by Hilton and the first Tempo by Hilton during the third quarter. Over this period, the company has also approved 35,500 new rooms for development, bringing the pipeline to 457,300 as of September 2023 – a growth of 4% from June 2023.

Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer of Hilton, said: "We continued to see strong results during the third quarter, exceeding our expectations for system-wide RevPAR growth, with growth across all customer segments. We also continue to leverage our industry-leading portfolio of brands to drive further growth of our global network.

“We believe we have hit an inflection point and expect a meaningful uptick in openings in the fourth quarter with continued positive momentum into next year. With a record number of approvals year-to-date driving the largest pipeline in our history, we are confident in our ability to accelerate net unit growth to 5.5% to 6% next year."

According to figures collected by GlobalData, Hilton’s growth is reflected in its hiring trends. Despite a significant dip in active roles during 2020, the company has almost tripled the number of available positions since July 2019.

Hilton’s third-quarter earnings report precedes expected reports from competitors including Marriott International and Airbnb next week.  

Our signals coverage is powered by GlobalData’s Thematic Engine, which tags millions of data items across six alternative datasets — patents, jobs, deals, company filings, social media mentions and news — to themes, sectors and companies. These signals enhance our predictive capabilities, helping us to identify the most disruptive threats across each of the sectors we cover and the companies best placed to succeed. 

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